Tweets · resolved market
Will Andrew Tate tweet 180-199 times Jan 24-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01cd127d45c858f6f204b9fdeb033b2fe707d9444fa8f3af517fbd2e6cff5d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 5c | 255.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 13c | 116.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 109.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086b…880dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 28.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…d106backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 180-199 times Jan 24-31?this page
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 160-179 times Jan 24-31?Yes won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 200-219 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 220-239 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 240-259 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 260-279 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 280-299 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 300-319 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 320-339 times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet 360 or more times Jan 24-31?No won
- Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 160 times Jan 24-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.