Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ffc4f657bde035ff699000c7b5768f18319a9a1f356e04a7d0238211b5c134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd591…7156backed Down | 30c | 654.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Up | 70c | 510$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…7c3dbacked Down | 31c | 505$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Down | 31c | 485$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed Up | 69c | 335$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked Down | 30c | 310$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8775…c4aebacked Down | 34c | 310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Down | 47c | 295.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…ab6abacked Up | 69c | 280$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…72d4backed Up | 70c | 275$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…8e5fbacked Down | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed Down | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e23ebacked Down | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed Down | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…b3afbacked Up | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed Down | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…d72fbacked Up | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…68a2backed Up | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…9c41backed Up | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8ff1backed Up | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…b2c6backed Up | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked Up | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…debebacked Up | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…90d9backed Up | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…9f82backed Up | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…9fcdbacked Down | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…3b3bbacked Down | 35c | 113.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed Up | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…7bd5backed Up | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…a1bfbacked Up | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Up | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Down | 33c | 60.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…438cbacked Up | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…62b4backed Down | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfe…2a06backed Up | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…02cdbacked Down | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…f30bbacked Up | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…374dbacked Down | 45c | 40.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eb8abacked Up | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…a102backed Up | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…f38dbacked Down | 44c | 36.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…35e8backed Up | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…8399backed Up | 56c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0b…37bcbacked Up | 54c | 30.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Down | 36c | 29.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Up | 57c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Up | 61c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed Up | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.