Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022f16cbe9fe8c19622096cbb9d4f72e5de5b15d3fd2a0929bd26fbdab528ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 14c | 451.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 32c | 284.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 6c | 264.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 140.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 117.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 92.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 87.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 59.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 51.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…9e81backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 64c | 31.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.