Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171a166c01e5ad2879346ee3c0fb28cf32558a477534e90dbd4bed1c23c8fc04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 392.64$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.81 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 286.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 278.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 206.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 79c | 196.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 193.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 77c | 187.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 118.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 74c | 100.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 43c | 100.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 88.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 75.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 68.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 39c | 66.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 66.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 39c | 63.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 61.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 54.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 30c | 52.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 74c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 48.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 48.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 44.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 43.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 43.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 75c | 41.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…963dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…d9dabacked Yes | 35c | 38.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 28.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 56c | 28.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 72c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 65c | 17.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.