Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 40 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x025f63b916f5ee656987b67edf9f9f81b68e700a8a045168c4f17fbd24299997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 2c | 10,310$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 20c | 1,077$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 5c | 1,051$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 25c | 394.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…c38ebacked Yes | 33c | 200.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 40 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100+ times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 40-49 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 50-59 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 70-79 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.