Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028d1bcdc13255e6800a2568c650932d5c673af4ab9dbb7de10322c9524b2261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 164.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 22c | 129.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 123.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 32c | 109.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 99.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 75c | 97.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 51c | 94.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 90.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 70c | 81.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 80.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 79.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 64.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 45c | 62.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 60.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 65c | 57.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 31c | 45.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 71c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 44.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 43c | 43.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 35c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 66c | 33.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…e7a3backed Yes | 35c | 29.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 74c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 60c | 21.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.