TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f75…7233backed Yes14c302.36$42 inWon+$260.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No43c256.6$110 inLost-$110.281,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes5c200$10 inWon+$19016844.6%75 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf45e…6e29backed Yes19c177.65$34 inWon+$143.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes11c132$15 inWon+$117.1781240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a97…9e7bbacked Yes10c123.71$12 inWon+$111.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+293.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes68c103.74$71 inWon+$33.0335151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84a0…63a4backed Yes12c100$12 inWon+$87.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+126.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.