Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033b969199e50e6a488d69edf1f472849dee9c640d4ec1209cf93788fcda9e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 326.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 20c | 250.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 215.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 77c | 90.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 88.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 30c | 67.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 64.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 64.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 25c | 63.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 36c | 61.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 76c | 61.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 60.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 57.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 78c | 56.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 52.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 48.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 23c | 48.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 80c | 19.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 80c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.