Euroleague · resolved market
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03916dd1915b973be57a9a92c0a2573d63f1f833270845ad07ad66d78b1e1182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KK Crvena Zvezdaof KK Crvena Zvezda, Zalgiris Kaunas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 46c | 1,281$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.77 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 53c | 899.54$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.46 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 54c | 664.28$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…5101backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 49c | 410.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…e547backed Zalgiris Kaunas | 52c | 213.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 47c | 133.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…4dbabacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 53c | 115.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 48c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 51c | 96.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…9639backed Zalgiris Kaunas | 61c | 94.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…5655backed Zalgiris Kaunas | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 51c | 26.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.