Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump mention Border the most in South Carolina speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b7010e69ff09a3371f53c7b2fe944182660fc9ac1497518784c650c0801b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 35c | 2,285$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…2515backed Yes | 76c | 2,022$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…7377backed No | 61c | 1,326$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 1c | 855$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6a63backed No | 64c | 600$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 66c | 520$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked No | 61c | 383.11$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 45c | 310.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…aee9backed Yes | 78c | 246.77$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed No | 25c | 166.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…cb8fbacked No | 70c | 143.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 30c | 111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c6…cd6abacked Yes | 74c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump mention Border the most in South Carolina speech?this page
- Will Trump mention Biden the most in South Carolina speech?No won
- Will Trump mention Rig the most in South Carolina speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.