Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03babcda0a9f1f2752726654705323a6cfedc28b938db88130fafdf0f035b648
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 299.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 282.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 237.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 77c | 235.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 64c | 214.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 170.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 54c | 160.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 154.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 114.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 21c | 113.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 70c | 101.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 66c | 85.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 55c | 85.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 38c | 80.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 50c | 74.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 72c | 71.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 73c | 59.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 64c | 52.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 51.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 50.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 67c | 48.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 42c | 44.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 44.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 64c | 42.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 38.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 36c | 32.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 66c | 27.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 67c | 24.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.