Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9049d42186aa6cd34e6b6d3714627e2f163eca970853ccda3bdaa8c87da2f5b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 9c | 988.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 22c | 391.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 347.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 44c | 299.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 53c | 284.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 28c | 265.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 253.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 53c | 220.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 199.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 77c | 197.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 48c | 197.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 122.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 28c | 121.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 47c | 120.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 46c | 100.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 94.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 76c | 93.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked Yes | 28c | 93.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 80c | 92.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…a98bbacked Yes | 37c | 80.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 47c | 77.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed Yes | 54c | 76.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 49c | 73.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 51c | 69.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 24c | 69.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 46c | 64.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 63.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 47c | 61.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 59.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 67c | 58.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 46c | 52.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 39c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 65c | 44.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 53c | 43.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 63c | 43.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 34c | 42.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 48c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 57c | 37.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 48c | 37.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 35.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b95…7fbcbacked Yes | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 72c | 32.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 44c | 30.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked No | 78c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 48c | 29.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…4acebacked Yes | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 50c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 52c | 27.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 48c | 26.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 48c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 52c | 24.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 55c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 22.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 74c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 73c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 74c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 55c | 18.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 80c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 75c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.