AI · resolved market
Will "Japan" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03be873d7d4deb9477fb7d68c6c5ed7a0a0053051b3cc169a6abf8f2c1f5718d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4157…5474backed Yes | 54c | 282.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 45c | 162.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…6460backed Yes | 58c | 90.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 47c | 90.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…6a82backed Yes | 56c | 86.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…84a2backed Yes | 62c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 50.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Japan" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?this page
- Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No won
- Will "Experimental" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No won
- Will "Money" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.