Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c133c9db5918e64a92dde6d71425e2d488f9f6d5cb6a39a5c7164acf386151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 1c | 3,620$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 40c | 1,024$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.72 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 414.45$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed Yes | 8c | 192.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 169.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 135.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 10c | 120.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 72c | 111.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 90.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 32c | 76.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 20c | 68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 17c | 58.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 21c | 55.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 53.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 46.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 57c | 40.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed Yes | 65c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 68c | 23.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 20.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 60c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.