Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ddf207b555968aad11a3b5bae0caa3327594a272645fab7b8e9cac42cd020d

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Florida Atlantic Owlsof Saint Mary's Gaels, Florida Atlantic Owls
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,528 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf102…1348backed Florida Atlantic Owls	52c	308$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.84	658	25.7%169 W · 489 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Saint Mary's Gaels	48c	190$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.3	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7bea…6ce6backed Florida Atlantic Owls	50c	166$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.59	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Florida Atlantic Owls	49c	140$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.4	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-9.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-26%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Saint Mary's Gaels	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Florida Atlantic Owls	51c	96.56$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.42	490	43.1%211 W · 279 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Florida Atlantic Owls	51c	93$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.57	70	60%42 W · 28 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Florida Atlantic Owls	50c	91$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.5	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Florida Atlantic Owls	50c	78$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+4.4wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Florida Atlantic Owls	48c	77$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.04	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Florida Atlantic Owls	52c	63$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	62$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Florida Atlantic Owls	50c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	48c	39.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Florida Atlantic Owls	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	70	61.4%43 W · 27 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Florida Atlantic Owls	50c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Florida Atlantic Owls	49c	32.54$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e71…8913backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2949…76bcbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7567…0923backed Florida Atlantic Owls	51c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-27%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	35	68.6%24 W · 11 L	+5.1wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4390…e842backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	52c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x00c0…4523backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38ee…012fbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.39per pick	59cpaid	-75%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed Saint Mary's Gaels	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb385…c1a4backed Saint Mary's Gaels	49c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed Saint Mary's Gaels	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-13.5)this page
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Saint Mary's GaelsSaint Mary's Gaels won
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 146.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event