Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03fb2bf7164e27fe1ad9d4d157fa374ca7f94c91b5234d6477d14b467d8b5644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad4d…dd89backed Over | 49c | 1,985$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.63 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 51c | 1,001$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…3c83backed Over | 39c | 766.82$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 725.14$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.81 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 52c | 535.31$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 61c | 425.49$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…0457backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 365.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…cce4backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Under | 52c | 80.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 46.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Under | 61c | 34.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Over | 60c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Under | 63c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Under | 62c | 22.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Under | 62c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)Xtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.