Champions League · resolved market
Mamelodi vs. Dortmund: 4+ Goals Scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03fdb3b1ad52346cd5a9c832c6e405292173cf9aa78c2eb79843c6cd5865280a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 35c | 3,049$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.15 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 65c | 2,647$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.05 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 66c | 1,978$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.78 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…13abbacked Yes | 34c | 1,866$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.7 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 67c | 1,115$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.14 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…1a50backed Yes | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…acb0backed Yes | 34c | 732.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 34c | 445.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 33c | 362$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…2964backed Yes | 34c | 355$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 65c | 306$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 69c | 288.41$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…0b22backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…dd07backed No | 66c | 220$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…40a7backed No | 66c | 210$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 62c | 205.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 67c | 200.64$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fe6cbacked No | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…9b52backed No | 66c | 130$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x308e…def2backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 38c | 71.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 38c | 66.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…7932backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…1d75backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…3a34backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 67c | 41.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…7601backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d5…5622backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e38…f7d2backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c35…3702backed Yes | 34c | 32.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e04…ddc6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…bd97backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…141ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +225.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.