Music · resolved market
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04292b7ca0728e530fb9de5cfc560d434df7434352f30f76eb63c70f07998ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 45c | 1,452$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 55c | 776$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 55c | 676$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 13c | 231.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 16c | 172.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 76.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 56c | 66.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 44c | 56.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…783fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 61c | 35.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?this page
- Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.