Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Luca Nardi vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0482cdd151f0894234e761d00b6de937b7fe5ab558355800251ffe4562d131f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Nardi, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Machac | 69c | 2,621$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.89 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Nardi | 31c | 1,486$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.66 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Nardi | 32c | 799.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Machac | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked Nardi | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Nardi | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nardi | 32c | 308.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Machac | 67c | 303.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Nardi | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Machac | 69c | 293.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nardi | 6c | 283.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Machac | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Nardi | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nardi | 26c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nardi | 30c | 42.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Nardi | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.