Tennis · resolved market
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Sonay Kartal vs Yulia Starodubtseva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06251006da5291ac83c92cbc47643c0cc1e55b1b723541206f42e16cb8c54c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kartalof Kartal, Starodubtseva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Starodubtseva | 43c | 2,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kartal | 57c | 2,070$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.63 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Kartal | 59c | 407.63$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Starodubtseva | 15c | 386.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Starodubtseva | 48c | 290.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Starodubtseva | 7c | 241.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Starodubtseva | 39c | 199.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Kartal | 61c | 164.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Starodubtseva | 32c | 118.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Starodubtseva | 44c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Kartal | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Kartal | 75c | 80.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Kartal | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0e…2281backed Starodubtseva | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…fae9backed Starodubtseva | 46c | 29.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Kartal | 73c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.