College Football · resolved market
Spread: Duke (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b181c449f9a3bfcb0042c4e46038babe2e682f4811d1f71bdd6a9617a3ed4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, North Carolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed North Carolina | 48c | 11,861$5,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,693.24 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Duke | 52c | 10,200$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,896 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked North Carolina | 49c | 3,801$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.81 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Duke | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Duke | 52c | 1,634$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.43 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke | 52c | 439.83$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Duke | 52c | 249.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed North Carolina | 50c | 190.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed Duke | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Duke | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Duke | 50c | 52.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke | 50c | 50.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke (-6.5)this page
- Duke vs. North CarolinaDuke won
- Duke vs. North Carolina: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Duke vs. North Carolina: O/U 50.5Over won
- O/U 51.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.