College Football · resolved market
Duke vs. North Carolina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5071b06f4937d310af0674d3b181d517f04133154530c51e8c5f33aeeef1ef6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, North Carolina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0be0…c770backed North Carolina | 65c | 10,388$6,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,790.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Duke | 58c | 5,965$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.18 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed North Carolina | 36c | 3,497$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.75 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Duke | 64c | 3,434$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.64 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Duke | 78c | 2,925$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.63 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Duke | 65c | 2,573$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.73 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed North Carolina | 32c | 2,441$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.18 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed North Carolina | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…f652backed North Carolina | 41c | 1,456$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Duke | 68c | 1,283$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.53 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed North Carolina | 32c | 1,066$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.77 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked North Carolina | 30c | 1,005$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.59 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…bde4backed Duke | 65c | 855.28$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.95 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 57cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Duke | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked North Carolina | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…1351backed North Carolina | 8c | 629$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Duke | 69c | 593.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.43 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed North Carolina | 44c | 459.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Duke | 80c | 430$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed North Carolina | 17c | 389.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…4dddbacked North Carolina | 32c | 345.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Duke | 69c | 332.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duke | 66c | 324$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed North Carolina | 32c | 313.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Duke | 70c | 285.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Duke | 64c | 232.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Duke | 77c | 229.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked North Carolina | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked North Carolina | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed North Carolina | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…9ff6backed Duke | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Duke | 70c | 185$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed North Carolina | 30c | 182.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Duke | 69c | 177.66$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed North Carolina | 30c | 161.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…6b2abacked North Carolina | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked North Carolina | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed North Carolina | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Duke | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Duke | 58c | 134.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed North Carolina | 30c | 124.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duke | 46c | 117.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Duke | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d89…36f5backed North Carolina | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked North Carolina | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…a73cbacked North Carolina | 17c | 89.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Duke | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…e360backed North Carolina | 30c | 78.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +10.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed North Carolina | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Duke | 70c | 73.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Duke | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Duke | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked North Carolina | 31c | 64.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed North Carolina | 29c | 62.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina | 30c | 61.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Duke | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…bb1ebacked North Carolina | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked North Carolina | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed North Carolina | 30c | 48.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…b0febacked North Carolina | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…47f7backed North Carolina | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed North Carolina | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed North Carolina | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Duke | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Carolina | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Duke | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Duke | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…dbe3backed Duke | 58c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Duke | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Duke | 62c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed North Carolina | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Duke | 52c | 23.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Duke | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…8184backed Duke | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…8c77backed Duke | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Duke | 70c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…6200backed Duke | 72c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Duke | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke vs. North Carolinathis page
- Duke vs. North Carolina: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Duke vs. North Carolina: O/U 50.5Over won
- O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Duke (-6.5)Duke won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.