Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c5a300b3cfc257494f00f85cf974c1cfcd21c6ea5de7e0b399c6a784062a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 234.88$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 200.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…8f05backed Yes | 44c | 178.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed No | 52c | 134.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 133$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 115.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 39c | 101.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 96.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 58c | 78.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 66.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 42c | 62.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed No | 56c | 57.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 42.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 41.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 38.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 37.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…0ee3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 25.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked No | 51c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…5881backed No | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 62c | 22.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.