College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07cb0b5f903b95dc07751ea36b5bd59c011889f940c892b20484f51dc2418774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Stateof James Madison, Washington State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Washington State | 49c | 8,658$4,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.42 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed James Madison | 51c | 7,520$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked James Madison | 51c | 6,207$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.74 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Washington State | 49c | 4,968$2,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.64 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed James Madison | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Washington State | 50c | 958.99$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.94 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Washington State | 55c | 728$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison | 49c | 294.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…f2efbacked Washington State | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed James Madison | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed James Madison | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Washington State | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Washington State | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed James Madison | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed James Madison | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed James Madison | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked James Madison | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Washington State | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked James Madison | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Washington State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-14.5)this page
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-13.5)Washington State won
- Washington State vs. James MadisonJames Madison won
- Washington State vs. James Madison: O/U 43.5Over won
- Washington State vs. James Madison: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.