Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07f1e15c130997beda283c270233eb92aba634e4b2b00da1ada83753b5095ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,240$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 773.51$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 496.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 63c | 456.4$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.03 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 11c | 321.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 293.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 5c | 213.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 159.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 17c | 136.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 31c | 134.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 112.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 109.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 38c | 106.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 21c | 101.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed Yes | 44c | 82.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 18c | 81.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 23c | 80.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 55c | 77.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 77.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 36c | 76.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 63c | 76.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 75.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 35c | 70.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 22c | 67.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 32c | 65.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 40c | 58.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 56.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 68c | 55.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed No | 62c | 43.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 40.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…76f3backed No | 66c | 29.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 79c | 23.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 67c | 23.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed No | 72c | 17.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.