Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Xinyu Wang vs Varvara Gracheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x081c5d1581d624dbf519d61596f40c5a9a4c9e39f1b47d913b8fb8d4bb847995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grachevaof Wang, Gracheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wang | 41c | 4,052$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.13 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Gracheva | 58c | 3,609$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.14 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Gracheva | 61c | 2,297$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.6 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Gracheva | 55c | 1,810$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.82 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wang | 44c | 1,448$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wang | 43c | 1,099$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.74 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Wang | 59c | 997$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.23 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Wang | 46c | 901.7$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.86 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Gracheva | 45c | 826.53$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wang | 76c | 515$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.4 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Wang | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wang | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Wang | 40c | 251.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Gracheva | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Gracheva | 61c | 187.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Gracheva | 52c | 179.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Wang | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Wang | 35c | 141.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Gracheva | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Gracheva | 48c | 54.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Gracheva | 75c | 48.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Wang | 25c | 41.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Wang | 45c | 36.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Wang | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wang | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.