Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.60 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085f1232fbc63daade45db7c5181aa2a3c08ba9f5aba68e8bc6261e6f1c7aca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,346$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.45 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 10c | 2,036$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.89 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,867$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.69 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…36a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,683$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +800.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…38c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +464.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 688.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.95 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 16c | 381$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.76 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 273.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.96 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 11c | 259.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.13 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…9cd8backed Yes | 12c | 199.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +726.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…a514backed Yes | 16c | 158.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked Yes | 33c | 156.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…a49ebacked Yes | 13c | 117.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +693.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…cb67backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 58c | 89.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 January 26-1?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 January 26-1?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.