Tennis · resolved market
ITF Sapporo: Natsuho Arakawa vs Yuka Matsumoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086b566669ff5160edac4149c462e81cc905603c65d582813466e13e5c837879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuka Matsumotoof Natsuho Arakawa, Yuka Matsumoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yuka Matsumoto | 38c | 468.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.59 | 3,891 | 35%1,362 W · 2,529 L | +93.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Natsuho Arakawa | 62c | 456.94$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 593 | 57.8%343 W · 250 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Yuka Matsumoto | 38c | 139$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuka Matsumoto | 38c | 126.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 5,352 | 28.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yuka Matsumoto | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Yuka Matsumoto | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yuka Matsumoto | 70c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 6,649 | 46.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L | -38.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…f721backed Yuka Matsumoto | 78c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.