Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Sturm Graz?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0882056e6095f478ec98e94637c65eee667076480b10f02dd6e5e61e0f47dafa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 39c | 3,962$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.43 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 25c | 2,290$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.26 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 30c | 1,784$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.94 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…e553backed Yes | 78c | 1,699$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,552$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.55 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 53c | 1,358$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.84 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…1d0cbacked No | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…7c26backed Yes | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 52c | 488.95$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.85 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…cbaabacked No | 20c | 468$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…898cbacked No | 20c | 344.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 49c | 102.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 38c | 26.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 48c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Sturm Graz?this page
- Will Sturm Graz beat Borussia Dortmund?No won
- Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Sturm Graz end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.