Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Winter Bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d099a2cb228e33a47a73a73412a69e28d16fc31cf469f19989aed7122ed13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winter Bearof Ilbirs eSports, Winter Bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,268 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Winter Bear | 51c | 2,644$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.43 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 833.05$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.86 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 298.76$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Winter Bear | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Winter Bear | 49c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.