Fifa International · resolved market
Will USA beat Saudi Arabia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f9c99cd3ed538ada2cd0c803b5002c63cc7bb058a852850365e0192d18882e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 77c | 3,213$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.43 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 47c | 2,958$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.98 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 52c | 1,916$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.32 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 39c | 1,000$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.06 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…0bd2backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…9cf3backed No | 37c | 990$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f8…cdd8backed Yes | 63c | 990$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bb…58e9backed No | 37c | 700$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 67c | 300.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…b5babacked No | 37c | 275$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…1822backed No | 38c | 275$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 30c | 162.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 68c | 147.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 35c | 99.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 32c | 83.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…8cfebacked Yes | 49c | 69.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Yes | 68c | 57.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…e776backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 62c | 41.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 63c | 35.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…ceb0backed Yes | 64c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA beat Saudi Arabia?this page
- Will Saudi Arabia beat USA?No won
- Will USA vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.