Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Murash vs WEC C (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ca09ea10256e9055b921bc6403470386539bec0e8cf739cce2ba6a20f5b520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murashof Murash, WEC C
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed WEC C | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Murash | 79c | 3,220$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.26 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed WEC C | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed WEC C | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked WEC C | 19c | 403.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed WEC C | 21c | 369.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Murash | 80c | 364.5$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed WEC C | 20c | 200.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked WEC C | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed WEC C | 21c | 142.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked WEC C | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed WEC C | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Murash | 33c | 61.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…6a5abacked WEC C | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked WEC C | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Murash vs WEC C (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1this page
- Map Handicap: MRG (-1.5) vs WEC C (+1.5)WEC C won
- Valorant: Murash vs WEC C - Map 1 WinnerWEC C won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.