South American Leagues · resolved market
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aab317ef2602ab4ab97c0cd79ab42e094e5fc9a7cb774783dfe490471157e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 29c | 882.89$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.83 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 760.83$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.74 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 718.47$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 60c | 340$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 263.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.95 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 38c | 218$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 151.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 129.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Over | 53c | 56.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 37cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 35.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 35c | 31.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…1d98backed Under | 38c | 30.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…2778backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Over | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc830…0071backed Over | 63c | 20.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5this page
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5Under won
- CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.