Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bolzano: Sebastian Sorger vs Alexander Weis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad2d8782be26b93bcf01d0c10f4af4a3866452ec08d973e9b612a71f4dab765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sebastian Sorgerof Sebastian Sorger, Alexander Weis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexander Weis | 19c | 3,991$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Sebastian Sorger | 76c | 2,062$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Alexander Weis | 20c | 103.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Alexander Weis | 17c | 103.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Alexander Weis | 31c | 97.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alexander Weis | 25c | 86.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Alexander Weis | 27c | 53.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Alexander Weis | 51c | 45.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Sebastian Sorger | 79c | 43.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Sebastian Sorger | 49c | 34.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Alexander Weis | 50c | 29.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…27d4backed Sebastian Sorger | 70c | 27.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Sebastian Sorger | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Sebastian Sorger | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…a7cdbacked Sebastian Sorger | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.