CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Lilmix (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad93aac45fd8429187b9c0f0ae4fc17d1e3a3602e922cb29fdfdde2c2dcbeb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AaB esportof AaB esport, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AaB esport | 77c | 1,340$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.26 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 24c | 1,187$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked AaB esport | 76c | 254$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Lilmix | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed AaB esport | 76c | 197$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…37f8backed Lilmix | 19c | 176.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Lilmix | 9c | 161.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed Lilmix | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked AaB esport | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed AaB esport | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed AaB esport | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed AaB esport | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Lilmix | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed AaB esport | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed AaB esport | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked AaB esport | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Lilmix | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed AaB esport | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed AaB esport | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked AaB esport | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Lilmix (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Lilmix - Map 1 WinnerAaB esport won
- Counter-Strike: AaB esport vs Lilmix - Map 2 WinnerAaB esport won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.