CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0c81ff65c042d46f9cb53ca5de9f2a06b93643cbbc002c9992046c6f4acaae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof SemperFi Esports, MOUZ NXT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed SemperFi Esports | 57c | 8,724$4,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,987.69 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ NXT | 40c | 4,812$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.59 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…55aebacked MOUZ NXT | 48c | 2,088$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports | 54c | 1,333$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.64 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MOUZ NXT | 47c | 1,200$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.79 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed MOUZ NXT | 43c | 999.81$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.41 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked MOUZ NXT | 48c | 626$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.52 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT | 44c | 405$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked SemperFi Esports | 55c | 369.98$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed MOUZ NXT | 46c | 369.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 356.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed SemperFi Esports | 54c | 127.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked SemperFi Esports | 59c | 119.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed SemperFi Esports | 61c | 104.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 217 | 23%50 W · 167 L | -35.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed SemperFi Esports | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…2548backed SemperFi Esports | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55e…a07abacked MOUZ NXT | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked MOUZ NXT | 47c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked SemperFi Esports | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.