Lol · resolved market
LoL: BRUTE vs NightBirds - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b33d0f6972429037095a64b2181916c558be4af85a43f09eb5a4b3b8523f78f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof BRUTE, NightBirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed BRUTE | 23c | 2,912$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.63 | 1,056 | 28.5%301 W · 755 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed NightBirds | 79c | 1,780$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.85 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BRUTE | 21c | 1,673$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.75 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked NightBirds | 76c | 1,328$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.17 | 2,004 | 58.2%1,166 W · 838 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NightBirds | 71c | 1,116$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.11 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked NightBirds | 72c | 699.98$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 960 | 57.4%551 W · 409 L | +22.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed BRUTE | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 33.3%62 W · 124 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BRUTE | 28c | 332.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BRUTE | 31c | 302.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BRUTE | 23c | 197.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed NightBirds | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 743 | 44%327 W · 416 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed BRUTE | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 315 | 22.9%72 W · 243 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5f73backed NightBirds | 59c | 120.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed BRUTE | 38c | 74.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed BRUTE | 23c | 72.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 146 | 44.5%65 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NightBirds | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,592 | 34%541 W · 1,051 L | -79.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…6645backed BRUTE | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed NightBirds | 73c | 28.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 493 | 66.7%329 W · 164 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed NightBirds | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d43…3f6cbacked NightBirds | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 245 | 68.6%168 W · 77 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed NightBirds | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 140 | 67.9%95 W · 45 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: BRUTE vs NightBirds - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-1.5) vs BRUTE (+1.5)NightBirds won
- LoL: BRUTE vs NightBirds (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters PlayoffsNightBirds won
- LoL: BRUTE vs NightBirds - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: BRUTE vs NightBirds - Game 3 WinnerBRUTE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.