Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b684dc408fdff794c75339d724f38b9a8ba66ac578d59cfb34625b173ac7daf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 3,476$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.17 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 2,426$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.21 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 2,111$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.62 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 59c | 1,890$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.65 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Spirit Academy | 39c | 1,504$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.76 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 1,216$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.07 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 942.19$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.99 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 735.95$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.57 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed VP.Prodigy | 33c | 591.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 549.89$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 526.25$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 62c | 347.93$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 210.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 162.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 151.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 133.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 122.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 120.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 118.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 108.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 93.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…d272backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 84.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 77.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…51debacked VP.Prodigy | 75c | 64.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 51.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy | 37c | 42.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 32.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 30.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40d…20a1backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 19.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5)Spirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.