Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ad318d82f4ccd0581352126e26e007d4eb40a004a9ae37da23e6a8464c44c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 2,589$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.55 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 1,119$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.53 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed VP.Prodigy | 41c | 607.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 599.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.99 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 532.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.21 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 469.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 462.94$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.88 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Spirit Academy | 38c | 429.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.51 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 407.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked VP.Prodigy | 61c | 389.48$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.01 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c6c1backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 380.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 346.94$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 305.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 289.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Spirit Academy | 31c | 253.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 227.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 215.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.65 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8923backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 194.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 190.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 185.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…e6d7backed Spirit Academy | 55c | 179.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed VP.Prodigy | 49c | 164.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 144.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 143.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked VP.Prodigy | 69c | 136$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Spirit Academy | 59c | 135.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 133.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Spirit Academy | 45c | 128.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 121.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Spirit Academy | 66c | 121.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 109.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Spirit Academy | 36c | 106.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 106.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Spirit Academy | 57c | 101.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2a9cbacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Spirit Academy | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Spirit Academy | 56c | 99.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…8a5cbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 97.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 96.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 95.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Spirit Academy | 46c | 94.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 94.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 94.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 93.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…fc60backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 91.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 78.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 77.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 59.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 59.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…f736backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 56.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Spirit Academy | 34c | 40.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked VP.Prodigy | 70c | 39.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed VP.Prodigy | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Spirit Academy | 51c | 36.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Spirit Academy | 33c | 34.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Spirit Academy | 30c | 34.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 33.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…e7c2backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 33.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 33.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked VP.Prodigy | 62c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 26.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…88fbbacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked VP.Prodigy | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 23.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e4…11f2backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 22.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 19.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…57d9backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 18.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5)Spirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.