Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0baba6e64af793a425baf9ecdd6c46640e019cc9bc8f32d350892a99efc8739a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 2c | 821.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 29c | 158.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 27c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 64.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9664…9ba0backed Yes | 49c | 64.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 164 | 73.2%120 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.