Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e96d3b22347434969476fe6267ff14b43771637819417e95110e60926ded652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 554.71$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.07 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 511.22$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 400$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.82 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 40c | 299.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 170.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 8c | 141.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 316 | 12.7%40 W · 276 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 135.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…1236backed Yes | 48c | 123.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 53c | 122.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 38c | 112.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 45c | 85.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 68.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 64.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 58.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 46.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 36.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 33.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 31.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 55c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 45c | 22.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 19.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.