Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf76b2c80955b8c74a505a67fc2b5f9142fbc93e62fcc33b3c705bc519f2c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 4c | 841.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 831.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 364$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 5c | 331.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 260.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d9dbbacked Yes | 74c | 207$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 78c | 195.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 195.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 179.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 70c | 163.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 147.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 142.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 72c | 138.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 130.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 68c | 99.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 91.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 77c | 85.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 84.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 37c | 71.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 62.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 28c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 53.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 41c | 49.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 34c | 47.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…cee3backed Yes | 43c | 39.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 38.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…6edabacked No | 31c | 35.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 33.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…c66dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 78c | 30.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 26.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 78c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 21.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…f019backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 15.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.