Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Osorio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c37a494a9f31e08b292b6a9ed644a422cb0358f6bc614388f2d6209eb8a923e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ostapenkoof Ostapenko, Osorio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ostapenko | 63c | 256.06$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Osorio | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Osorio | 65c | 129.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Ostapenko | 23c | 85.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ostapenko | 41c | 84.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…b355backed Osorio | 29c | 69.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…8977backed Ostapenko | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…8d3abacked Ostapenko | 41c | 49.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…5ee0backed Ostapenko | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…8594backed Osorio | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…5312backed Osorio | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Ostapenko | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…8a5ebacked Osorio | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…7aadbacked Ostapenko | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…443ebacked Ostapenko | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f45…7e11backed Ostapenko | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…0ae8backed Ostapenko | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Ostapenko | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Osoriothis page
- Qatar Total Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Camila OsorioOstapenko won
- Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Osorio (+1.5)Ostapenko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.