Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $180 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c40e626f9941f2ac25ff98e41eb75a8d5349cd5967e01bdf98586ee867c8ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 29c | 6,214$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,427.02 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 65c | 2,873$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.93 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 43c | 1,466$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.32 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 70c | 1,300$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked No | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…c160backed No | 44c | 732.3$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 75c | 357$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 50c | 251.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked No | 45c | 219.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 7c | 166.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…0bd1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +87%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…b906backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…202fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…7518backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…129dbacked Yes | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $180 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Solana dip to $130 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana dip to $190 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana reach $220 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana reach $230 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Solana reach $270 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.