MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c5a6bda728193ee576186f109dc08beab1c40cbaeb839212a0feec339336387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 9,276$6,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.9 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 9,208$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 1,303$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.72 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 1,108$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.48 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 303.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 152.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 118.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 92.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 71.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 62.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.