TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Orioles, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 598 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles42c19,029$8,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,074.011,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Astros58c17,289$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,289.1828646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles24c14,897$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.2454345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Orioles44c12,610$5,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,593.0434245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Astros57c8,930$5,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,867.6436047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37be…c646backed Astros59c7,992$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292.486450%32 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Astros56c7,802$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,449.7245248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Orioles43c7,266$3,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.3638949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Orioles48c5,911$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.31,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Orioles33c5,662$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.6338444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Astros57c5,288$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.8423455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3447…3495backed Orioles43c5,120$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.62650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros56c4,231$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.922,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros57c4,016$2,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.999,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fd…b575backed Astros57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7201747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles44c2,802$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.661,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Astros64c2,272$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.7931248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Astros77c2,039$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.9641747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Orioles34c1,588$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.065834.5%20 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab0…4cd3backed Orioles45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6759447.9%45 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Orioles33c1,352$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9832754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Orioles45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles42c901$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4224547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles36c835$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Orioles30c824.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Astros56c746.04$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.269448.9%46 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Astros67c626$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1851953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles42c605$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.144443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Orioles32c577.78$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0660052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Orioles34c568.75$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.731547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Astros50c547$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.9921246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Astros57c532.45$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9524253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Astros57c526$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.181,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Astros54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.342452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Astros56c499.94$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9830850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Astros69c461.29$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles15c449.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.371,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Astros59c388.65$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5238751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Orioles44c366$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0417946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles43c350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles43c349.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles42c349.98$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc525…7a36backed Astros72c347.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Astros57c320$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.61,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Orioles45c288.69$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.911,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Astros70c285.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4553448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Astros56c280.09$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1111446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Astros65c275.76$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.884,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Astros56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8623060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6f…e87cbacked Astros57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.164647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Astros56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11034051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles44c241.43$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10699951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles43c233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1940548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orioles44c226.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Orioles20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3945732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5a…d1bbbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e9…4ef4backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865056%28 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7752…490bbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…b555backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb033…88e6backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e48…c9cabacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbbf…f78fbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865139.2%20 W · 31 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-25.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6caa…d782backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea21…9033backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865250%26 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfa…2fa8backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c37…a9efbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6f…a521backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…fbe2backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0a…bb8ebacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab77…cd04backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46fe…78dabacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865366%35 W · 18 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf6ff…42f7backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9194…cc43backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865362.3%33 W · 20 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x97cd…1d85backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1e5…0bccbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865160.8%31 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa393…f478backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865149%25 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806e…2d21backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865330.2%16 W · 37 L-11.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xce4f…0170backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf45…413abacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebb…670dbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65a…3aa3backed Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865358.5%31 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1138…be8fbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda76…0838backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865238.5%20 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc2e3…fbbebacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x223e…602bbacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c54abacked Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb79f…8197backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ba6…8340backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56f5…0071backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f1…a93dbacked Orioles43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865042%21 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc3…1270backed Astros57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865461.1%33 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.