Champions League · resolved market
Will Bologna beat Sporting CP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cbd409c993f876b449a05f91197eae14733daeff2f4f39d96122bec26fd3980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 49c | 3,472$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.76 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 53c | 2,838$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.84 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 41c | 555.96$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 15c | 254.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 59c | 220.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…5d79backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 73c | 54.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 52c | 44.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +49%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…f747backed Yes | 48c | 44.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…d158backed No | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde40…2d13backed No | 46c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb170…55e6backed Yes | 59c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna beat Sporting CP?this page
- Will Sporting CP beat Bologna?No won
- Will the match between Sporting CP and Bologna end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.