Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Modo Serio (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce3190dcd438cf4df2c6174cc6c9fe9149a0f0af2e27c769bf9359159623976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TeamDkof TeamDk, Modo Serio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked Modo Serio | 41c | 1,255$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed TeamDk | 59c | 999$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.59 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed TeamDk | 55c | 437.34$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked TeamDk | 59c | 256$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…b417backed Modo Serio | 45c | 173.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked Modo Serio | 45c | 130.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Modo Serio | 45c | 126$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Modo Serio (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsTeamDk won
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 1 WinnerTeamDk won
- Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 WinnerTeamDk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.