Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d023f7f73d9fe501118e68f8cc94b269ef111dbc3d2dda43800e2838a8b959d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 57c | 936.83$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.21 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 8c | 479.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 68c | 342.85$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 323.03$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 265.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 72c | 242.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 30c | 216.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 147.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 19c | 144.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 34c | 143.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 116.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 115.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 113.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 74c | 104.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 96.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 86.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 71.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 60.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 69c | 53.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa47d…e6a4backed Yes | 23c | 49.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 46.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 69c | 43.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 33c | 40.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 40.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 39.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 65c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 29c | 37.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 32.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 71c | 14.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.