College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio State (-31.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d889c72ab23abdb17e29786bbb5a9b4e0cac105fa7f0a9837d0acb99fce3d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stateof Ohio State, UCLA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Ohio State | 54c | 48,419$26,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,227.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed UCLA | 46c | 25,081$11,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,537.15 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UCLA | 46c | 18,854$8,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,673 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Ohio State | 53c | 8,960$4,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,215.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed UCLA | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCLA | 45c | 3,704$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UCLA | 47c | 897$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.49 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked UCLA | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed UCLA | 49c | 211.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCLA | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Ohio State | 51c | 204$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCLA | 44c | 121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UCLA | 42c | 111.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed UCLA | 42c | 109.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ohio State | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked UCLA | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked UCLA | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Ohio State | 58c | 86.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…8806backed UCLA | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked UCLA | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed UCLA | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio State (-31.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Ohio State (-32.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-33.5)Ohio State won
- UCLA vs. Ohio StateOhio State won
- UCLA vs. Ohio State: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.